Coal in the stocking

I don't know about you, but we still spent a lot of money during the holiday shopping season this year. But we cut back on presents. The difference is that we also got hit with some needed computer and house repair bills that sucked cash right out of our wallets.

But the mall parking lots still seemed full to me. But when I wandered the mall and store aisles I sensed that the place was actually less crowded, and the check out lines were much shorter. So my guess is that the holiday retail sales figures will be from average to horrible. And most stores won't be able to make it with average or below average sales figures.

Here is Kevin Drum noting a report on this from another angle:

NIGHTMARE ON MAIN STREET....From the Wall Street Journal, this is as gruesome a statistic as I've seen yet:

Corporate-turnaround experts and bankruptcy lawyers are predicting a wave of retailer bankruptcies early next year, after being contacted by big and small retailers either preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection or scrambling to avoid that fate.

....AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010....Recent changes in the bankruptcy code make it more difficult for retailers to emerge from bankruptcy reorganization....Lawrence Gottlieb, a New York bankruptcy attorney at Cooley Godward Kronish LLP says that only two retailers have successfully emerged from bankruptcy proceedings since the amendments to the code were passed.

A quarter of all major retailers may be in either Chapter 11 or liquidation next year? Holy cow.

UGLY!