Who has their backs?

Since we are down to 3.5 candidates (you don't really think Huckabee can come from behind and win, do you?) I think we should move on to our VP forecasts.

The pick for Veep will be critical for each of the candidates, but perhaps for Senator John McCain most of all. The dude will turn 72 in August. And did you know ...

For the record, just checking actuarial tables, the odds are roughly 15% that a 72 year old person will die in the next 4 years. For a 60 year old person (like Hillary), it's about 5%.

So does McCain pick Huckabee to keep the Evangelicals close? Does he pick someone who really is a moderate, centrist who can draw from Independents and Republicans? Another move is to go with a hard edge Neocon to keep the Bush base (the 30-percenters) happy. Or how about the hilarious suggestion lately that he could pick Condi Rice as his running mate? And will all of this make Joe Lieberman jealous?
My prediction for McCain is ... Jeb Bush. I know it sounds nuts, but it's all part of the deal McCain made when he sold his soul to Bush/Cheney/Rove to become the Republican nominee in '08.

As for Senator Hillary Clinton, this is a tough one. I think she needs someone with a pleasing nature who isn't a Type A personality ... a shadow. A name tossed around is Senator Evan Buyh of Indiana.

But the winning ticket will be Senator Barack Obama from Illinois and Senator Jim Webb from Virginia. Webb is a former Admiral, a critic of the war in Iraq, and he has a son currently serving over there. He is tough. But like Obama he only has brief experience in Washington with less than two years in the Senate. But people clamoring for real change may be attracted to two people on the ticket who are not entrenched in Beltway politics.

PS - You'll notice that I didn't give John Edwards consideration. He is still tainted by the 2004 disaster.